Archive for March, 2011

March 27, 2011

George Barna said during the Rediscover God in America webinar recently that Jesus died for none of the things the church measures.

He related how the church measures how many people show up, how much money they gave, what kind of programs there were, and how much the building is built out.

Did Jesus die for church buildings or the people?

That same day, Rick Warren tweeted “Jesus began his Church as a FAMILY! It became an institution in Rome,a political tool in Europe & a business in America.”

What’s the deal?   

Has the church world finally seen the light that Jesus prayed three times in John 17 that the world would be won because believers are one.

This is encouraging theology coming from various parts.  Can this be that believers are starting to act like they believe?

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We can hope.  What did Jesus tell YOU to do?

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March 23, 2011

In what may be the Government’s most aggressive attempt to engage the Global Citizen, Social Media for Emergency Management initiative has really taken off.

This effort came into play through the leadership of Jeffrey Phillips @LosRanchosEM and a host of others who have and continue to develop tools of the trade, guidance, and education for the growing number of emergency managers using social media.

Tweeting #NSWW, the group helped with breakout sessions at the National Severe Weather Workshop in Norman.

The group is also presenting at the National Emergency Management Association conference this month.

Weekly online training followed by real time drills and exercises, including the efforts of Oklahoma Ice Map shows the utility of the project.

Follow the group, if you want to learn about Social Media in Emergency Management, want to gain new tools, or want to share how you are engaging your residents.

March 20, 2011

Are you following the news in Japan?

It’s been over a week since the earthquake and tsunami.

There’s no rioting in the streets, no reports of looting, no outcries for the head of FEMA to resign.

Could this mean that the Japanese really ARE the second most prepared country in the world?  One writer suggest they are Number ONE in this arena.

Pay attention America. If this was happening here, would you do as well?

http://www.ready.gov … make a plan, build a kit to support the plan, practice the plan.

Today, please.

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via Homeland Security Watch by Philip J. Palin on 3/20/11


The image above displays different levels of March 11 quake intensity (circles) superimposed on population density. Red star is epicenter. Darkest blue is Tokyo region.  The large arc of an island extending across most of the picture is Honshu.  The island at the top is Hokkaido.  The northern third of Honshu is traditionally known as Tohoku (literally meaning northeast).  Courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory.
As of Sunday evening in Japan:
Dead: 8133    Missing: 12, 272 (Kyodo)
Injured: 2611 (OCHA)
Evacuees in public shelters: 360,000 (Kyodo)
Buildings damaged or destroyed: 117,000 (USAID)
Without regular water service: 2.3 million people (COE)
Without electricity: 289,000 households (713,000 plus people) (OCHA)
Aftershocks: 290 and at least one separate 6.1 earthquake (USGS)
The situation at hospitals that have been without tap water, electricity and gas since the earthquake struck remains a concern. Many hospitals are trying to keep patients alive without water or electricity. Some hospitals have reported reducing the number of meals and procedures provided. They fear that lives saved from the earthquake will now be lost due to the shortages of doctors and medicine. There is also a shortage of medicines for people with chronic conditions in the evacuation shelters. Several reports of hypothermia, serious dehydration and respiratory diseases in the shelters. The focus is now on keeping the elderly alive and healthy. (OCHA)
The cold weather has eased slightly but the Japan Meteorological Agency warned that freezing temperatures will return in the Tohoku region on 20 March, and be followed by heavy rains on 21 March. Unseasonably cold weather is expected to continue beyond 22 March. The Agency has also issued a flood alert for the earthquake affected coastal regions during the spring tides from the 18 – 26 March and in particular for Minami-Sanrikucho, Miyagi where the ground has sunk 75cm.
Approximately 94 percent of main roads reaching affected coastal areas had been repaired as of March 19, with additional repairs ongoing in affected areas, according to the GoJ.  In addition, six previously damaged sea ports are now operational and the Sendai airport is open for a limited number of emergency and humanitarian flights. (USAID)   Two main highways are still reserved for emergency vehicles only. (COE)
The current GOJ guidance for securing emergency supplies: Evacuation centers will send requests to municipalities, and the prefecture will consolidate these requests  and liaise with the national government. Then, the national government will request relief items  and food from the private sector and other municipalities, which will be consolidated at SDF  sites and transported by the SDF to affected areas. (COE)  This system is not yet having wide-spread effectiveness.  According to Sunday’s Washington Post, “Eight days after a 9.0 magnitude earthquake sent a merciless wall of water crashing onto Japan’s northeastern coast, a city once noted for its jazz festival and expansive joie de vivre is reduced to foraging for basic necessities. The descent of a vibrant metropolis toward a state of simple survival has helped numb the population to a further agony. Many here are too preoccupied with day-to-day needs to focus on unseen dangers leaking from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant down the coast.”
The GoJ has announced temporary power cuts across the nation, following the reduction in output or the closure of 11 of 50 nuclear generators located in affected areas. The government warned that rolling blackouts would begin March 14 and are expected to last until at least the end of April.  (COE)
The construction of temporary housing for the evacuees has started in Rikuzen-Takada City and Kamaichi City, in Iwate Prefecture. In Rikuzen-Takada, 36 structures are planned for the end of this month, and 200 in total afterwards, while about 100 structures are to be built in Kamaishi, Ofunato, Iwate and Sohma, and Fukushima. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, estimates 8,800 temporary houses are needed in Iwate, 10,000 in Miyagi and 14,000 in Fukushima for the short-term. The Government has requested a consortium of constructors to build at least 30,000 in two months. (OCHA)
According to Reuters, Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said that the economic damages from the disaster would exceed 20 trillion yen (US$248 billion). The 1995 Kobe earthquake caused some US$100 billion in damage and was the most expensive natural disaster in history. Citigroup estimated 5-10 trillion yen in damages to housing and infrastructure while Barclays Capital estimates economic losses of 15 trillion yen (US$183.7 billion). Goldman Sachs estimated total economic losses to be 16 trillion yen. (US$198 billion) (Reuters, March 19)USB expects Japan’s economy to grow 1.4 percent this year, compared to a previous forecast of 1.5 percent and also upgraded its growth forecast for next year to 2.5 percent, up from a previous estimate of 2.1 percent. (Reuters)
Crisis Commons has established a data aggregation site focused on Japan. It is being constantly updated and expanded.  ReliefWeb continues to be a very rich source of background and situational awareness.

–+–
It has taken much longer than the oft-discussed 72 hours, but nine-to-ten days after the earthquake-and-tsunami a reasonably clear picture of the situation in Northeast Japan is beginning to emerge.  The clarity will increase with each passing day, as should our sense of the profound scope and scale.  This is how a rich, resilient, and well prepared society can still be knocked very hard.
It is, I think, premature to reach many risk readiness conclusions.  While the amount of information available is really amazing, differences of language and culture can obscure our understanding.  The vast amounts of information may even distract from our sense of meaning.
But it is not too soon to begin framing some questions.  Even as those on the ground are organizing themselves to serve the survivors, how can we organize observations to enhance our chance of future survival.  A few questions of particular personal interest:
Resupply of the affected areas has been slow.  What factors contributed most to the delay: Unavailability of supply? Damage to transportation infrastructure? Uncertainty about the status of transportation infrastructure? Reduced availability of fuel?  Uncertainty about availability of fuel? Weather complications? Unwillingness of truckers and other elements of the logistical system to enter the impact area?  Refusal of officials to allow truckers and others to enter?  Efforts to establish effective command-and-control?
My deniable hypothesis: All the above contributed, but I perceive the command-and-control mentality had (and is having) a particular impact.
While the total number of dead is likely to be close to or above 20,000, given the roughly 1.4 million in the earthquake-and-tsunami target zone, this is a considerably better outcome than might be expected.  What saved lives:  infrastructure, information, training?  Family reunification is a big question for US catastrophic preparedness, what is the Japanese policy/strategy in this regard?  What was the population’s behavior in this regard?  Who died?  It seems to me there is evidence to suggest that the elderly died in disproportionate numbers.  Was this a matter of mobility?  Information?  Training?  Isolation?
My deniable hypothesis: The wider the individual’s social web especially at the critical moment of threat, the more likely their survival.
At least from this distance, there has been a strange sort of slow-motion decision-making in regard to both the tsunami response and dealing with the nuclear emergency.  For example, I am neither a firefighter nor a nuclear specialist, but I was pushing use of Tokyo’s high-rise firefighting equipment at Fukushima 48 hours before it happened.  Based on my experience in Japan I wonder about the influence of hierarchical cultural patterns.  To what extent were people waiting for orders? Waiting for instructions?  Using the Cynefin framework, how did participant-observers define their problem: was it complicated, complex, or chaotic?
Two deniable hypotheses: The situation after 2:46  Japan time on March 11 was “chaotic”.   Most participants and decision-makers in Japan treated the situation as “complicated.”  See Cynefin Framework for definition of terms.
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    March 18, 2011

    The following is from the Medical Reserve Corp in Oklahoma. It's a
    timely topic since it's the close to National Flood Awareness Week.
    Will you take the time to follow the advice, please?

    Of course we hope it will never happen, but in the event that your
    home was lost to a wildfire or flood, would you have a record of your
    possessions?  Being prepared includes mitigating loss, so take steps
    now to make a home inventory that will document your belongings for
    insurance and replacement purposes. If you have an iPhone or iPod
    touch, you can use the following FREE app to create your record.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Creating a home inventory is easier than ever thanks to
    myHOMEScrAPP.book, a new iPhone application from the National
    Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). The free app lets you
    quickly photograph and capture images, descriptions, bar codes, and
    serial numbers, and then stores them electronically for safekeeping.
    The app organizes information room by room, and even creates a backup
    file for email sharing.

    To get started, download the free myHOMEScrAPP.book. APP for iPhone
    users by visiting the iTunes App Store or searching "NAIC" in the app
    store for your phone.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Even if you don't have an iAnything, you can do the same thing using
    the tips below. Just be sure to include any serial numbers, and make
    sure you have at least 2 copies stored in separate locations. Remember
    that out-of state contact you chose when you wrote your family
    emergency plan? Send them a copy too!

    10 Steps to Complete a Home Inventory
    1.     Make a list of all possessions, including "celebration"
    purchases such as jewelry and fine art.
    2.    Think about family heirlooms, collections and furniture. Also
    consider items related to everyday leisure time from flat screen TVs
    to custom guitars.
    3.    Take note of commonplace items such as toys, CDs, and clothing.
    Do not forget items you only use occasionally such as holiday
    decorations, sports equipment, and high-ticket items kept outside your
    home such as landscape art and swing sets.
    4.    Attach copies of original sales receipts and/or appraisal
    documents to your inventory. Be sure to note model and serial numbers.
    5.   Group your possessions into logical categories, i.e., by hobby,
    or by room in your home.
    6.    Carefully photograph or videotape each item and document brief
    description including age, purchase price, and estimated current
    value.
    7.     Remember to open drawers and closets to document what's inside.
    8.    Store your home inventory and related documents in a safe
    deposit box. You may want to share a copy with your insurance provider
    so he or she can make necessary updates to your coverage.
    9.    Review your inventory annually and whenever you make a
    significant purchase.
    This weekend, take some time to review your emergency plan with your
    family, check supplies in your kit, and make your home inventory.

    Please reply directly to Debi Wagner at debramw@health.ok.gov. Simply
    replying to this message will not reach your intended recipient.

    March 9, 2011

    Who cares about the National Football League?

    If there’s a lockout, it’s evidence of greed.

    Many of their fans never returned from the strikes and lockouts.

    Go on strike, players! Your “fans” don’t care!

    There’s hockey and soccer … and college sports … with a better show … for less money.

     
     

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    via digg.com: Top News on 3/9/11


    A-Rod makes more in 4 at bats than 98% of Americans do an entire year. Jamarcus Russel spent more on a pair of earrings than most Americans will earn their entire lives. Do sports represent the worst aspects of American society?

     
     

    Things you can do from here: